The last time we elected a president, we changed history. The United States of America elected it’s first president from and underrepresented group. Even better, the battle for the nomination was historic – It came down to a woman or a black man. Not bad.
So, now, the sting of placing our confidence in the hands of someone OTHER than a white male should be a source of comfort. The advance of the racial stigma should be behind us. It’s not behind us – it has actually just shifted to other categories… Several other categories…
I came across some statistic that I found fascinating: In the year July, 2011 to July, 2012, U.S. births were 49.6% white and 50.4% non-white. Underrepresented groups are officially the majority and candidates know it.
I also happened across a quote from a senior demographer for the Brookings Institution in the New York Times that said, “This is an important tipping point — a transformation from a mostly white baby boomer culture to the more globalized multi-ethnic country that we are becoming.”
These kinds of details are what can make or break this election…
We’re now approaching another election for president and the candidates couldn’t be further apart in these demographics:
Women: Mitt Romney has been fighting, struggling to capture any of the women’s vote. But, taking to the right on abortion, condemnation of Planned Parenthood and being virtually silent on equal pay doesn’t win you votes. And getting your wife to talk about her struggles raising 5 sons doesn’t win you votes either when most voters think she can pay her struggles away. It wins votes for President Obama…
Black people: Mitt Romney addressed the NAACP at their national convention. PBO did not. Yes, some black people will vote for PBO just because he’s black. PBO should have gone to the convention just to say thank you for your continued support. Likewise, Romney should have used that time to attempt to confirm a group with which he more closely relates. It is clear that he has no connection to or interest in black people, black culture, the black experience. Another demographic for President Obama…
Latinos: I’ve know Latino voters to tend more republican. This is a demographic Romney could make some head-way. His family history in Mexico would be a perfect in, but, he doesn’t appear to want to embrace that history. PBO also beat him to the punch on the issue of undocumented children born or arriving in the USA. It’s a sign of relief for kids who only know the US as their home – for their parents too. That is an active effort for which the entire latino community will feel supported. Romney and his team can criticize it as a bandage, but, the latino community feels supported and protected. Another demographic for President Obama…
LGBT: President Obama made a choice… He decided to take a side on the issue of gay marriage. For the longest time, PBO said his position with regard to gay marriage was evolving. I think some part of it was in conflict with his faith. Then he realized the important issue was not the same-sex element, but, the equality of citizenship and humanity. Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan and the GOP stand firm on marriage being between a man and a woman. Another demographic for President Obama…
I also recently heard two other statistics: The asian population in the US is growing at a rate equal to, possibly slightly faster than the hispanic/latino population. That could be significant depending on voter turnout and activism in the asian community.
The other statistic I heard was that the jewish vote would skew towards PBO. I don’t know that this demographic is of mass, but, it is an underrepresented group and when added to the other underrepresented groups… Another demographic for President Obama…
So, that leaves conservative white males. If we go strictly by statistics, full voter turnout and the reliability of this data, PBO wins. But, underrepresented groups sometimes tend not to have high voter turnout rates and, the divide is still basically 50-50. This could be a squeeker…
I can’t help but point out a glaring image I saw when Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate. At the end of their remarks, both families gathered on the stage to wave to the crowds – a perfect photo op. But, what I saw was something that looked like 1950’s America…
What I saw was a picture of the perfect white families for which everyone is expected to aspire. Like the ’50’s. I’ve never had a reaction like that – it’s never been that glaring or complete. Even if they don’t think that, it screamed across the TV screen. I wouldn’t be surprised if some white people didn’t see it and feel a bit put-off. I’ve never felt so completely disconnected from any candidate.
So, I think there’s something to these statistics. I’m not sure it’s a coincidence that ALL of the underrepresented groups in this country have conveniently lined up on one side.
It’s gonna be a close election no matter what… we’re about to find out who’s the true majority in this country…
